Since 1945, 87% of secessions around the world have been peaceful (out of 134 national secessions), according to an analysis by Prof. Ryan D. Griffiths (Age of Secession, pg. 48.)
In modern times, Louisiana certainly wouldn’t attack a federal base, as South Carolina did in 1860, no matter what the provocation.
Attitudes toward casualties have changed in the US since then. A poll found that only 7% of Americans think fedgov should attack a seceding state. Click here to read an article about why it won’t, or read this shorter article.
By the way, the number of Louisiana gun owners outnumbers all federal infantry by thirty to one, so it’s unlikely that the federal government would consider the cost of armed occupation (and the disruptions to its economy caused by civil war) to be worth the benefit in modern times.
